The threat of using nuclear strikes in response to actions by the West or Ukraine, which Russia considers crossing so-called “red lines,” has been a form of blackmail by Putin since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While there are no current signs that nuclear weapons will be used, it is worth considering what potential signs might exist in a hypothetical scenario.
In an interview with the “Pravda” TV channel, Vadym Chernysh, Chairman of the Board of the Center for Security Studies (CENSS), shared his thoughts. Below are a few key points from his interview:
In an escalation model, there are indicators that precede nuclear escalation. If we are talking about tactical weapons, one such sign would be monitoring. Tactical weapons are small in scale and will not resolve Putin’s battlefield issues. Instead, they serve as another step to demonstrate the seriousness of his intentions.
Other escalation signs could include actions like a test explosion on Novaya Zemlya. Currently, no nuclear tests are being conducted, so detonating a nuclear charge at the Novaya Zemlya test site would be a clear demonstration of intent.
Another sign of preparation for the use of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons would be the preparation of bunkers for leadership. Putin has already shown several times that he is preparing bunkers. This includes the preparation of backup command posts and the demonstrative release of information, such as duplication of command structures.
Photo source: Channel 24.