Last week, Putin, accompanied by a delegation of Russian officials, visited North Korea. It was his first visit to the DPRK in 24 years. Media reported that ahead of the visit, the Kremlin leader issued a decree stating that Moscow aimed to sign a “comprehensive strategic partnership agreement” with the country. After this, the Russian president also visited Vietnam. What do these visits mean? What could Russia have been negotiating with North Korea and Vietnam? And what consequences might these agreements have for Ukraine? Vadym Chernysh, Chairman of the Board of CENSS, shared his insights on this with the Pryamy TV channel. Below are some key points from his interview.
On Putin and the strengthening coalition he is forming around himself:
It is clear that Putin is looking for replacements for European partners in Asia. Specifically, Denis Manturov, who is in charge of the defense industry, accompanied him. This clearly indicates that the discussions were about components for various types of weaponry. In return, Russia could offer North Korea liquefied natural gas, oil products, oil, and intelligence data.
Additionally, this could involve seeking agreements on the establishment of used Chinese machinery in North Korea. These machines would be able to produce components that would later be assembled with Shahed drones in Russia. This would benefit all parties involved. It’s worth noting that North and South Korea have experience with a joint economic zone in Kaesong, where 55,000 North Korean workers operated Hyundai and other equipment.
Moreover, this might involve an exchange of intelligence, possibly part of satellite or GLONASS technology (the Russian equivalent of GPS). This would be used for missile targeting and other munitions, as well as the modernization of North Korean equipment. These countries are likely aiming to create an economic bloc and military cooperation. I believe China is not just watching this. It benefits China for Putin to visit Vietnam to normalize relations. There is currently a warming period between Vietnam and China, although many claims they are enemies. Therefore, I think their shared goal is to piece together an economic and military cooperation puzzle to counter the West.
What Vietnam can offer Putin:
Vietnam has a lot of high-tech manufacturing. Part of this production was relocated from China, and they even competed with each other to some extent. Therefore, Vietnam has products that they can offer.
What South Korea’s symmetric actions could be:
How might South Korea act, and how is it already acting? For example, Poland is signing a contract for 1,000 “K1” and “K2” tanks. The “K2” is one of the most advanced tanks in the world. Poland receives the “K2,” and in return, it transfers “Twardy” — modernized Soviet tanks — to Ukraine. We have already received 300,000 South Korean shells. These could be supplied directly to Ukraine, although typically, South Korea supplies weapons to NATO allies, and those countries then pass them on as replacements.
South Korean air defense systems are considered top-tier, although Ukraine hasn’t yet used them. There is data suggesting that South Korea has a surplus of these air defense systems. How compatible they are with Ukrainian systems should be analyzed by specialists. In addition, South Korean companies produce excellent engines for maritime drones. So, they have many technologies, from engines to 155mm artillery shells, which we have already received and are in short supply. Tanks, air defense systems, navigation systems, electronics, components for any systems, and launch systems are all part of their manufacturing capabilities.
Why Putin is enraged with threats:
North Korea lacks fighter jets, satellites, guidance systems, and missile technologies — all of which are prohibited by the UN Security Council, and which Putin disregards. This has specifically outraged South Korea because they see it as a violation of sanctions and the UN Security Council regime, which Russia is part of. Now, the Russians could “undermine” Korean military activity at sea by conducting joint exercises with the Koreans and Chinese, blocking large areas of the sea.
How all this could lead to escalation:
In my opinion, Kim is willing to act as a provocateur against the United States, distracting their forces and attention towards that direction. I want to remind you that Putin’s visit took place against the backdrop of a real issue along the demarcation line. This was not coincidental, but rather intentionally provoked before Putin’s visit. There is a serious contingent of 55,000 American soldiers and the American fleet stationed there. However, this element didn’t sit well with China. Therefore, I believe any controlled escalation they pursue will be coordinated with China, but only to create tension, not to truly escalate the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
On Russia potentially giving part of its territory to build a Chinese port:
I think this would strengthen the so-called AUKUS line. Let me remind you that there is also the QUAD format, where India is involved. I believe this partly involves Taiwan and Japan. There are American bases in Japan for defense, American troops are in South Korea, and Australians currently host American nuclear-powered submarines, which China fears. In my opinion, the Americans will not allow dominance there. But Putin has gone there to destabilize the situation and kindle another flame that will divert attention from their efforts.