"СЕНСС" декабря 5, 2024 No Comments
Vadym Chernysh, Chairman of the Board of CENSS, was a guest on the summary program with Mykola Veresny at Analizuy – a platform for thoughtful people. During the program, Vadym Chernysh answered questions about whether the threat from Russia to Europe still exists and if Russia could use military force against Western countries.

Does the threat from Russia to Europe still exist?

Chernysh believes the threat to Europe still exists. The so-called “hybrid threats” from Russia currently aim to exploit divisions within European societies to support political forces sympathetic to Russia. These include countries like Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, France, and even Germany. Russia has been using these tactics for a long time, not only regarding Ukraine but also to weaken European unity. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, Russia attempted to “divide” the EU and the U.S., saying, “We won’t talk to the EU as a political entity, we’ll talk to individual countries”—thus trying to exploit splits and deepen divisions.

If such efforts are being made, it indicates that Russia might identify weak points—countries that are sympathetic or vulnerable—and use fifth columns to support Russian interests, such as calling for cooperation or “joint peace exercises.” Chernysh warns that there is a potential for betrayal from certain political circles, and that Russia is trying to influence these figures in European countries, which should prompt Europeans to consider the threat seriously.

Can Russia use military force against Western countries?

According to Chernysh, to consider a threat as real, two factors must be present: capability and intentions. The weakness lies in how political leadership learns about intentions. Intelligence agencies can only gauge them with a certain probability, and when you don’t know intentions 100%, but only have an idea of their likelihood, preparation becomes necessary.

European countries are preparing because:

  1. Intentions can change,
  2. Intentions might exist only in the mind and not be institutionalized or written down.

Russia, at present, does not have the military capability to attack European countries or NATO members because its forces are engaged in defending Ukraine. However, Russia might be able to develop this capacity in 4–6 years, and some German experts say it could be possible in 3 years.

Chernysh believes that for now, Russia lacks both the ability and the intent to attack Europe, but such a threat could emerge in the future. He stresses the importance of developing a strong deterrence capacity. Deterrence theory dictates that if Russia decides to attack, it must face consequences disproportionate to the potential benefits. Economic sanctions didn’t work against Ukraine, and Western powers were wrong to rely on them. This raises doubts about their effectiveness for Europe and the West as a whole.

As a result, the defense industry and military forces must grow stronger. Chernysh suggests that NATO will not play the leading role in this development, but countries like Germany and France, the largest in the EU, will lead the way. France, being the EU’s only nuclear power, and Germany, as an industrialized nation, will play a key role. He also believes that the role of the UK will grow, as Russia is seen as the top threat for the UK in surveys conducted at the Munich Security Conference.

However, some political pacifists might argue against spending money on armament and enhancing security capabilities, preferring diplomacy and the so-called “peace dividends.” Chernysh warns that such pragmatic pacifism could lead to countries believing that making concessions to Russia could prevent future aggression, without understanding Russia’s true intentions or historical context.